Expectation in ATC

Expectation bias in ATC can be defined as having a strong belief or mindset towards a particular outcome.

This can occur even when there is evidence to the contrary.

Types of biases can include:

• Hindsight and Outcome Bias
• Local Rationality

The following activities can be undertaken to reduce the likelihood of prolonged expectation bias leading to near misses, incidents and accidents:

• Highlight where and when expectation bias has or is likely to occur (through lessons learned and / or relevant examples).
• Design software that is usable and specifically highlight safety significant information.
• Highlight where accepted procedures deviate from the normal (e.g. routing practices).

Related Articles

• Flight Crew Expectation Bias
• Continuation Bias

Further Reading

EUROCONTROL

• "Human Performance in Air Traffic Management Safety -A White Paper": EUROCONTROL/FAA Action Plan 15 Safety, September 2010.